Mayor Sutcliffe and business leaders talk Trump tariffs at Ottawa Economic Outlook

Mayor Mark Sutcliffe speaks at the 2025 Ottawa Economic Outlook. (Photo by Mia Jensen)
Mayor Mark Sutcliffe speaks at the 2025 Ottawa Economic Outlook. (Photo by Mia Jensen)

The word of the day was “uncertainty” at the 2025 Ottawa Economic Outlook on Tuesday, where less than a day after the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, Mayor Mark Sutcliffe and local business leaders shared their thoughts on what the next four years could hold for the city. 

“It’s certainly interesting to be here after Trump’s inauguration and at a time when we’re also waiting to find out who the next prime minister of Canada will be,” Sutcliffe said in a 30-minute address to the crowd of businesspeople at Rogers Centre Ottawa. 

“That is how we are starting 2025 in Canada. And here in Ottawa, I’m relieved at least that President Trump has his sights set on the Panama Canal and not the Rideau Canal. For now, we’re okay.”

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Sutcliffe expressed an overall positive view of the past year in Ottawa, with the north-south LRT getting off the ground, the success of the world junior hockey championships, Live Nation’s plans to build a new concert venue on Rideau Street, and a plan for downtown revitalization established. 

But he shared worries that 2025 might not be so rosy, with unknown international factors at play. 

“We are making progress and we have a lot to look forward to,” he said. “But we do face some pretty significant challenges and, I don’t want to be dramatic, but I would say a few of them are historic challenges.”

In his first hours in office, Trump reiterated his intention to hit Canada with 25 per cent tariffs starting Feb. 1. And on Monday, a survey from the Bank of Canada revealed that a quarter of Canadian businesses expect their costs to rise as Trump takes office. 

“There is a significant risk of a trade war between our two countries,” said Sutcliffe. “That trade war could create significant uncertainty and even economic damage throughout Canada, including here in Ottawa. We’re starting to hear about job cuts in the federal public service. There was news about that yesterday. That’s a huge threat to our local economy and we need to be ready for it.”

It was a sentiment echoed throughout the day. 

Dawn Desjardins, chief economist for Deloitte Canada, said in her keynote presentation that uncertainty about Trump’s policies will hold Canadian businesses back.

“Seventy of the CFOs we surveyed said now’s not a good time to take on risk,” she said. “This was before the president-elect threatened tariffs. So I can’t even imagine what that number is going to be in our next survey.”

When Trump first threatened to impose tariffs, Deloitte estimated the economic impact of a 10 per cent tariff and found that, if Canada retaliated, growth could decrease a full percentage point in 2025. 

“For Canada, we know this is going to be a very difficult time to see companies really taking on risk, which is only natural in an environment of very strong and very elevated levels of uncertainty.”

Allison Gifford (left), Catherine Fortin LeFaivre, and Dawn Desjardins hold a panel discussion at the 2025 Ottawa Economic Outlook. (Photo by Mia Jensen)
Allison Gifford (left), Catherine Fortin LeFaivre, and Dawn Desjardins hold a panel discussion at the 2025 Ottawa Economic Outlook. (Photo by Mia Jensen)

In a panel discussion, Catherine Fortin LeFaivre, vice-president of strategic policy and global partnership for the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said tariffs would be “game-changing” for Canada. 

“We’re getting tons of questions on impact and, truthfully, we don’t know how it’ll manifest itself,” she said. “Nobody knows. And if there’s one thing we’ve learned from engaging with our U.S. counterparts, it’s that anybody who tells you they know what Trump is going to do is a fool. Nobody knows except himself.”

She added that Canada is “preparing as best as we can.” Part of the chamber’s strategy, she said, is to attempt to communicate the importance of the Canada-U.S. trade relationship to state governments and business leaders south of the border. 

“I think most Canadians, it’s a fundamental understanding, especially amongst business people, why it’s so important,” she said. “For our U.S. counterparts, a lot less. So at the chamber with our networks, we’ve been spending a lot of time over the last couple of months telling that story of the integration of our economies and how it will impact us all if these tariffs are in place.”

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EVENT ALERT: Mayor's Breakfast with Ontario Finance Minister on Wednesday, Dec. 4 @ City Hall