With the federal Liberals now holding a majority government, local government relations experts are expecting the upcoming term to be a consequential one as MPs return to the House of Commons this week.
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With the federal Liberals now holding a majority government, local government relations experts are expecting the upcoming term to be a consequential one as MPs return to the House of Commons this week.
Marci Surkes, chief strategy officer and managing director at Compass Rose, said the summer has been busy for business clients who work with the government and she’s expecting the pace to continue picking up.
“The marquee event for just about everybody in business doing business with the government of Canada this fall is undoubtedly the budget,” said Surkes. “The government will announce its timing, but I think most observers would suggest it will likely be late fall, most likely after the U.S. mid-term elections. There's not a chance to catch your breath out of summer before going right into this cycle.”
Though Surkes said Prime Minister Mark Carney has acted as though he’s had a majority since he was elected, she believes having a real majority now will mean a legislative-heavy agenda in the coming months, with new bills expected almost every week.
“We do have this new dynamic in the House of Commons where there is now a clear majority position for the Liberal government,” she said. “Which means that, from a tactical perspective, the government can move its legislation more expediently through the House of Commons. They have the majority on committees. So there again, the government can limit amendments from the opposition. They really have a lot of runway to get things done on the agenda.”
This term, Surkes said businesses have their eyes on a few issues in particular.
One is Bill C-39, the One Canadian Economy bill, which is designed to encourage investment in projects that support economic growth and workers. Surkes said the legislation will address lingering questions from businesses about labour uncertainty, among other areas of concern.
While it still has a long way to go, Surkes said the legislation will have a “direct impact on businesses from coast to coast to coast.”
“Most notably, (the bill includes) port modernization, how we get our goods to market in places outside of this country,” she said. “We know the government has set that very ambitious target of 50 per cent non-U.S. exports. Everything here is set against the backdrop of continued strife in the Canada-U.S. relationship.”
This week, Surkes will be keeping an eye out for a report from the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance (FINA), which will release recommendations following its pre-budget consultations with stakeholders in the coming days.
Surkes said a record number of submissions were made to the committee this year.
“We know that there had been a huge clamour for the attention of the committee,” she said. “We know that there is more interest in the government agenda at the moment from all forms of organizations across the country.”
For Chris Day, senior vice-president of government relations at Burson’s Ottawa office, tensions with the U.S. and a potential partnership with the European Union are two of several factors businesses are paying attention to right now.
“There's a lot of confusion about, you know, what does associate membership in the EU even mean?” he said. “I think it's a bit like early dating at the moment. Do I want a second date? Okay. Do we want to go steady? Do we want to be exclusive?”
Above all, he said businesses are looking for certainty out of this term.
“I think a lot of businesses have really been struggling over the last 18 or so months with the uncertainty that is surrounding all of these issues and geopolitics generally,” he said. “Anything the government can do to provide clarity, to provide certainty, to give and signal where it's going in really clear or clearest possible terms will be most welcome.”
Day said personnel changes as committees restructure are also something to keep an eye on, as members take on new files and different positions from their predecessors.
Domestically, he said he’ll also be watching the ongoing separatist movements in Quebec and Alberta as potential wildcards that could shake things up this term.
In addition to a busy legislative season, Day is expecting to see a lengthy budget bill later this fall.
“I imagine they're going to want to try and get as much through in that act and there's a couple of reasons for that, but the government now has control of the agenda with its majority and some of the tools available to the Opposition over the last few years aren't there, or they'll have to be used differently,” he said.
“On the budget, I think it's going to be a consequential budget with very, very large numbers in it. On what side of the ledger some numbers fall to versus others will be really interesting to watch as we deal with the commitments that have been made over the summer, but also higher resource revenues and potentially some higher than expected foreign direct investment dollars flowing from the summit last week.”
On the defence side, Surkes said the budget may show restrained spending in the coming years. While she isn’t expecting cuts, she said the budget may plateau as the government figures out what it can sustain.
“I think that spending will continue to be significant in order to meet international targets in terms of NATO commitments and commitments to other multilateral fora,” she said. “But I would be watching that to see if it levels off.”
She added that while the budget will be significant, issues like tariffs may cause the government to tread carefully.
“This will not be an austerity budget, but I do believe even amidst all of the spending that they are having to do to ensure that Canada emerges from this trade war as successful as possible, they are also going to be exercising restraint in a number of areas.”
