The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa will increase two per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026 compared with the same quarter last year, according to a forecast from Royal LePage released this week. This beats the projected national increase of one per cent, and is also ahead of regions such as the […]
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The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa will increase two per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026 compared with the same quarter last year, according to a forecast from Royal LePage released this week.
This beats the projected national increase of one per cent, and is also ahead of regions such as the Greater Toronto Area, where aggregate home prices are expected to fall by 4.5 per cent over the course of the year.
Royal LePage expects the average aggregate home price in Ottawa to reach $786,624 in the fourth quarter, up from $771,200 a year earlier.
“Ottawa’s housing market saw a slower-than-usual start to the year, with sales below long-term averages, though activity has begun to pick up as we head into the spring market,” said Jason Ralph, broker and owner, Royal LePage Team Realty.
“Buyers remain active, particularly at more affordable price points, but they are taking more time and approaching decisions more cautiously. Pricing has remained relatively stable overall, with modest recent gains since the start of the year suggesting early signs of strengthening as we move into the spring season.”
In the first quarter of 2026, the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa dropped 0.5 per cent year-over-year to $775,800. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 0.5 per cent to $882,200, while the median price of a condominium fell 2.6 per cent to $400,500 during the same period.
Ralph said market conditions continue to vary across housing segments, with townhomes seeing the strongest activity and condo sales starting to stabilize after a period of elevated supply. Demand for single-family homes has remained steady, he added, especially at entry-level price points.
“Looking ahead, I anticipate a busier spring market that will help to offset the slower start to the year,” said Ralph. “Inventory levels remain higher than in recent years, giving buyers more choice and keeping the market in balanced territory, while prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the months ahead.”
Royal LePage’s forecast came a week after the Ottawa Real Estate Board said the local resale market “showed clear signs of early spring momentum” in March even though home sales continued to lag behind last year’s levels.
A total of 1,075 residential properties changed hands in Ottawa last month, down 4.7 per cent year-over-year but an improvement on February’s 6.8 per cent decline from the previous year.
The average residential sale price was $692,584 in March, up 0.9 per cent from the same month in 2025, while the median price was $642,000, down 0.5 per cent year-over-year.
The city’s stock of resale housing also continued to grow, with new listings up 7.5 per cent from March 2025 to 2,452. Active listings rose 10.3 per cent year-over-year to 3,578.
In a news release last week, OREB said sales are “keeping pace with new supply,” leading to a “gradual tightening” of market conditions as prices rose across most property types.
“March’s activity is a clear sign that Ottawa’s market doesn’t move in dramatic shifts,” OREB president Tami Eades said in a release.
“What we’re seeing is a measured, steady return to activity. Inventory is up, sales are improving, and pricing is firming without overheating. We expect a more active and stable market in the months ahead.”
OREB also said recent announcements from the federal and provincial governments – such as a plan to eliminate the 13 per cent harmonized sales tax on new homes in Ontario worth up to $1 million and a pledge to give billions of dollars to help municipalities cut development charges – “represent one of the most significant aligned housing policy efforts in recent years,” adding the moves “will likely spur activity in Ottawa’s housing market.”
New housing starts in Ottawa-Gatineau jumped more than 50 per cent in March compared with a year earlier, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Friday.
Builders began work on a total of 1,094 new housing units last month, up from 726 in March 2025.
Multi-unit projects – which were built at a record pace in 2025 – continued to be the hottest housing type. There were 969 new apartment, condo and other multi-unit starts in March, a 56 per cent increase from 620 a year earlier.
CREA downgrades national forecast
Meanwhile, the Canadian Real Estate Association downgraded its forecast for home sales activity in 2026, while noting the number of homes across the country sold in March fell 2.3 per cent from a year earlier.
CREA is now expecting a total of 474,972 residential properties to be sold throughout the year, which would be one per cent more than in 2025 but down from its previous forecast in January of 5.1 per cent growth year-over-year.
The national average home price is forecast to rise 1.5 per cent on an annual basis to $688,955 in 2026, which would be around $10,000 lower than predicted in January.
In March, the national average sale price fell 0.8 per cent compared with a year earlier to $673,084.
CREA’s own home price index, which aims to represent the sale of typical homes, edged 0.4 per cent lower between February and March and dropped 4.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis.
That marked the 14th consecutive monthly decline in the national benchmark house price, leaving it down 20 per cent from the early-2022 peak, noted Oxford Economics senior economist Michael Davenport.
"We expect house prices to continue drifting lower before finding a bottom around mid-year, thanks to a resumption of modest job growth, improved affordability, and fiscal stimulus that will increasingly support demand," said Davenport in a note.
However, he said that's conditional on "a relatively short-lived U.S./Israel-Iran war" and a favourable renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement.
"There's a material risk that Canada's housing slump could persist for longer and lead to a deeper correction in prices," he said.
While a long winter and economic uncertainty have delayed Canada’s spring housing market, Royal LePage president and CEO Phil Soper said he's hopeful that consumer confidence could turn around quickly if there was positive news related to global tensions or trade uncertainty.
"Good news in any of the geopolitical high-level areas could definitely lead to a fairly rapid change in behaviour," said Soper in an interview.
"It doesn't take much to turn the market around and certainly some positive news like a CUSMA agreement or a truce ... between the United States and Iran would help here at home."
Royal LePage's quarterly home price update and market forecast report, released Thursday, pointed to an uptick in activity in recent weeks that could signal a potential turnaround.
"The volume of transactions did increase quarter-over-quarter," said Soper, despite reluctance on the part of first-time buyers in particular. "So there is life in Canadian housing, but it still remains a slow market."
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase one per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026 compared with the same quarter last year.
CREA, meanwhile, said rising global economic uncertainty "piled on to an already shaky economic start to the year" in March.
It said its forecast was dampened by higher inflation tied to a spike in oil prices. That has raised the odds of a Bank of Canada rate hike later this year, prompting higher bond yields and resulting in a jump in fixed mortgage rates.
The association said it expects higher mortgage rates to curtail activity on their own, but the potential for the oil shock to be short-lived will likely also cause many buyers to wait for rates to fall before making their move.
“2026 is still expected to see a modest amount of upward momentum in sales and a stabilization in prices as some pent-up first-time buyer demand enters the market, but the forecast for the year has had to be revised downward," said CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart in a press release.
"The timing of higher mortgage rates, along with the perception they may be temporary, could keep would-be buyers away at the most active time of year — April, May, and June — as they wait for rates to come back down."
National home sales were virtually unchanged in March on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis.
The number of newly listed properties ticked 0.2 per cent lower month-over-month. A total of 167,524 properties were listed for sale by the end of the month, up one per cent from a year earlier and 10.6 per cent below the long-term average for this time of the year.
"Canada's resale housing market is stuck in a rut, and it doesn't look likely to break out of it any time soon," said Davenport, adding activity moved lower for the fifth consecutive month in March.
Looking ahead to 2027, CREA said it now forecasts national home sales to improve by 2.1 per cent to 485,071. But it added that number could rise above the 500,000 mark if higher interest rates prove unnecessary to fight inflation.
The national average home price is expected to edge up 0.9 per cent from 2026 to $695,094 next year, subject to an upward revision if the current oil shock and associated inflation end up being short-lived.
– With additional reporting from The Canadian Press 
