High fuel costs could be the wild card for summer tourist season

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When bookings shot up 25 per cent in the first two months of 2026, RVezy founder Michael McNaught was expecting a banner tourism season. But by March, things had taken a turn for his online RV rental platform. 

“It almost felt like people had their wallets out, credit cards in hand, and then they said, ‘I’m just going to hold off for a bit,’” he said, pointing to the Iran conflict and resulting geopolitical tensions and rising costs as factors behind the change in consumer behaviour. 

High gas prices, in particular, are a concern for both businesses and consumers, with airlines such as Air Canada and Air Transat reducing capacity or cancelling flights due to the high cost of jet fuel. On the road, RV travellers are waiting longer to book their getaways, McNaught said.

Nonetheless, local tourism operators are optimistic. McNaught is one of them. 

“We’ve done all the surveys and talked to all of our customers and it’s not that they’re not going to travel this summer,” he said. “They’re going to travel, but they’re going to book their vacation much closer to the date they’re going to travel. In the motorhomes industry, people typically book three or four months in advance. Now we’re starting to see bookings within 30 days of their travel dates.”

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McNaught is expecting Canadians to avoid the U.S. and look for ways to stick closer to home. “I think we are seeing an influx of staycations.” 

According to a recent report by Destination Canada, more Canadians are choosing to stay within the country, with a rise in inter-provincial trips. The report found that, in 2025, travelling Canadians contributed $1.5 billion to the domestic economy, with the trend expected to continue. 

“One of the clearest opportunities (for tourism) is the continued strength of domestic travel,” Sebastien Benedict, president and CEO of the Tourism Industry Association of Canada, told OBJ in an email, adding that “Canadians continue to prioritize travel, and demand remains resilient.”

At the same time, affordability will be a challenge, making the season unpredictable, he said. 

“Higher fuel prices can influence travel behaviour, particularly for cost-conscious households,” he said. “For some Canadians, this may mean shorter roadtrips, fewer nights away, staying closer to home, adjusting in-destination spending, or choosing destinations that offer stronger overall value. The consequence is not necessarily that Canadians stop travelling, but that they travel differently.”

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That could be good news for Ottawa, which relies on drive-in travellers who make last-minute plans for short weekend trips into the city. 

Last year was record-breaking in the city, according to Jérôme Miousse, director of public affairs at Ottawa Tourism, who said tourism traffic reached new highs in July, August and October 2025. 

“We are definitely looking to continue surfing on that wave and capitalizing on that good momentum that we have in Ottawa for tourism right now,” he told OBJ. “We think we are well-positioned for a strong summer tourism season.”

In addition to sporting events and the usual suite of major festivals — including the Canadian Tulip Festival, Escapade Music Festival, Bluesfest and CityFolk — Miousse said Ottawa’s 200th anniversary and the FIFA World Cup matches hosted in Toronto could draw more travellers to the city. 

To address affordability concerns, the city is continuing its Visit Ottawa program, which Miousse said complements the federal Canada Strong Pass, allowing tourists to travel and visit local attractions for free or at discounted rates. 

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Miousse said the programs “make it cheaper to travel around Canada, which is important for Ottawa as a very strong domestic tourism destination.”

The program benefits travellers from nearby areas who make up the majority of the city’s tourism traffic, he added. 

“Ottawa gets approximately 90 per cent of its visitors from the domestic market and our main markets are in Ontario and Quebec,” he said. “The drive-in markets are super-important, where you can make last-minute decisions to visit Ottawa, come to a festival or just visit family or friends. We’re also very close to the northeastern U.S. When you add it all up, the driving distance market is close to 20 million people.”

Ariel Waller, activities coordinator at Saintlo Ottawa Jail Hostel, said efforts to market Ottawa as a tourist destination have paid off. 

“Ottawa is really a secondary market in Canadian tourism,” she told OBJ. “When people visit Canada, they’re usually hitting Montreal and Toronto. But what I find when I talk to tourists is that people will often stop over in Ottawa on their way to those cities or on their way to the coasts.”

At the hostel, bookings have increased every month to date in 2026, with that trend expected to continue. If it does, she said it will be the busiest year for the haunted hostel since Saintlo took over operations in 2011. 

“While we are seeing fewer American tourists, we’re seeing a lot of Canadian travellers and we’re seeing a lot more people from overseas,” she said. 

After the success of its inaugural season last summer, Hard Rock Hotel and Casino Ottawa is looking to settle into a steady rhythm with its first full tourist season. 

“Last summer was an anomaly that will never happen again but I think things are going to stabilize this year and we’ll know exactly how that trend is going to be,” advertising manager Brian Beehler told OBJ. “Overall, I’m seeing the numbers trend very nicely. We saw an uptick in March and then in April we just saw an explosion of traffic coming in. I think that’s going to continue.”

While the hotel has been operating at around 80 per cent capacity, Beehler said the casino, restaurants and entertainment venue have been the biggest traffic-drivers. Those amenities, he said, are helpful when factors such as weather and economic uncertainty create unpredictability. 

“We have benefits that other hotels don’t,” he said. “They’re really trying to drive advertising and social media, trying to get connected with the festivals to get their occupancy up. We want that too, but we can also supplement our occupancy percentage.”

While he’s expecting a solid season this year, Etienne Leblanc-Cameron is waiting until 2027 for significant summer traffic growth. 

“We’re thinking there’s going to be a small uptick this year but really next year, I think, is where we’re going to see the bigger wave come back,” said Leblanc-Cameron, who owns Lady Dive Tours and Gray Line Ottawa. 

While his tour companies see a fair amount of last-minute and domestic travellers, he said large international groups are his customer demographic. For example, when China implemented limits on travel to Canada and other countries in 2023, he said his companies took a big hit. 

But that may change in future. “We’re still between 10 to 20 per cent fewer tourists than we had before COVID, so we still haven’t fully recovered,” he said. “But I think big group travel is going to come back for 2027 and we’re really excited for that to happen.”

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