A new economic outlook by the Conference Board of Canada says a recession is possible, but the underlying conditions are working in the economy’s favour.
The think tank says it expects there will be essentially zero economic growth from the second half of this year through to the first quarter of 2023.
It says whether that meets a technical definition of a recession will depend on some ultra-fine-tuned estimates that will not be wholly visible in the annual numbers.
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Overall, the board expects growth for 2022 to come in at 3.0 per cent based on the strength of the first half of the year.
The pace of growth is then expected to slow to 1.2 per cent in 2023 before rising to 2.7 per cent in 2024 and coming back down to 1.8 per cent in 2025.
Increases to the consumer price index are expected to be 3.8 per cent in 2023 and 2.2 per cent in 2024, the board says.
