Royal LePage says it expects the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa to rise three per cent in the fourth quarter compared with the same quarter last year — up from its previous forecast of a two per cent gain. This beats the projected national increase of two per cent, and is also ahead […]
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Royal LePage says it expects the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa to rise three per cent in the fourth quarter compared with the same quarter last year — up from its previous forecast of a two per cent gain.
This beats the projected national increase of two per cent, and is also ahead of regions such as the Greater Toronto Area, where aggregate home prices are expected to fall by two per cent over the course of the year.
Royal LePage is projecting the average aggregate home price in Ottawa to reach $794,336 in the fourth quarter, up from $771,200 a year earlier.
"Ottawa's second quarter got off to a slow start, with spring market activity building more gradually than anticipated," John Rogan, broker of record at Royal LePage Performance Realty, said in a news release as Royal LePage released its second-quarter home price update and market forecast report.
"Home prices have inched up slightly, despite sales activity being lower than the same period last year. Inventory has held at balanced levels, suggesting the recent slowdown has been driven more by softer buyer demand than by supply constraints."
The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa increased one per cent in the second quarter of 2026 compared with a year earlier, rising to $789,800.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.2 per cent year-over-year to $904,300 in the second quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 1.1 per cent to $402,900 during the same period.
Rogan said move-up buyers remained active throughout the second quarter, while first-time buyers have been slower to enter the market amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
"Government talk of downsizing has created some hesitation among Ottawa buyers who are not certain how it will affect them, and broader economic and employment uncertainty is keeping many cautious and slower to commit to a purchase,” Rogan explained. “Looking ahead, we expect fairly typical summer market activity, with potential for a busy fall if consumer confidence improves."
Royal LePage’s forecast came a week after the Ottawa Real Estate Board reported that home sales were down 4.9 per cent in June compared with the previous year.
OREB said 1,518 homes changed hands last month, down from 1,597 in June 2025. The average residential sale price was $733,648 in June, up 1.3 per cent from a year earlier, while the median price was $655,000, a drop of 1.3 per cent.
The board said the supply of resale homes “remains elevated by recent years’ standards.”
There were 3,110 new listings last month, a 5.6 per cent increase from June 2025, and 4,982 active listings, up 13.2 per cent year-over-year.
Single-family home sales fell 1.8 per cent from last year to 879, while townhouse sales were down 7.3 per cent to 429 and 178 apartment-style properties changed hands, a decline of 14 per cent.
Meanwhile, OREB said three suburban submarkets continued to account for most of the city’s sales activity. Ottawa Suburb South led the way with 382 transactions, while there were 373 in Ottawa Suburb West and 328 in Ottawa Suburb East. Those three areas represented more than 70 per cent of Ottawa’s sales last month.
"As we move through the summer market, the key story isn't simply higher inventory, it's how well demand continues to absorb that supply," OREB president Tami Eades said in a news release last week. "Ottawa remains a fundamentally balanced market, but we're seeing clear differences emerge between property types and neighbourhoods.”
National price forecast gets boost
Royal LePage says it is also raising its national housing price forecast for this year as demand continues to outpace supply in some regions.
The real estate company now expects the aggregate price of a home in Canada to increase two per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $823,344 compared with the same quarter last year — up from its previous forecast of a one per cent gain.
Quebec City is expected to see the largest year-over-year price growth at eight per cent, followed by the Greater Montreal Area and Winnipeg, each at five per cent. Home prices in Halifax, Edmonton and Regina are expected to rise four per cent, according to the forecast.
Prices in Canada's two most expensive markets, the Vancouver and Toronto regions, are expected to fall 3.5 per cent and two per cent, respectively, compared with late 2025.
Royal LePage said the spring housing market began to find its footing in May following a sluggish start to the year, with momentum carrying into June.
Royal LePage president and CEO Phil Soper said he's optimistic that the fall market will remain on track, as pent-up demand from buyers and sellers who delayed listing earlier this year continues to build.
"Several regions are now seeing that uptick in momentum carry into summer, as buyers who held back earlier in the year re-enter the market,” said Soper in a news release.
“In many cases, what has kept consumers on the sidelines is not a lack of interest, but a lack of urgency. In markets where inventory levels remain elevated, homebuyers have the luxury of time, browsing at their own pace until the right property comes along."
He said that approach has been reinforced by a "persistent backdrop of economic uncertainty" affecting Canadians' decisions to move. That includes elevated inflation driven by rising energy prices, reflecting hostilities in the Middle East, along with the unpredictable future of Canada's trade relationship with the United States.
The Trump administration indicated on July 1 it would not extend the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, triggering a period of annual reviews that will run until the agreement's scheduled expiry in 2036.
“For Canadian consumers, ambiguity surrounding CUSMA is another reason to pause and reassess before making major financial commitments, including the decision to buy or sell a home," said Soper.
"Even though most are not directly impacted through their employment, we know that trade-related anxiety is enough to weigh on consumer confidence."
The report said the aggregate price of a home in Canada decreased 1.4 per cent year-over-year to $814,900 in the second quarter. However, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price remained essentially flat, ticking up 0.2 per cent.
Measured by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home fell 0.9 per cent year-over-year to $862,400, while the median price of a condominium decreased 2.9 per cent to $574,800. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home rose 0.6 per cent, while the median price of a condominium decreased 0.5 per cent.
The report noted a shrinking price gap between Canada's most and least expensive markets. While the aggregate price of a home decreased 4.5 per cent year-over-year in Greater Vancouver and 4.6 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area in the second quarter, limited supply elsewhere in the country has pushed home prices higher nationally.
"Softening home prices in our largest and most costly cities are making these markets more accessible, opening the door for buyers who may have previously been priced out," Soper said.
"Meanwhile, secondary markets that did not experience drastic pandemic price increases followed by sharp declines, have continued to record steady home price gains. Looking ahead, this could translate into less interprovincial migration than we have become accustomed to this decade."
In other real estate news, the Canadian Real Estate Association has downgraded its forecast for home sales activity in 2026 again, despite a small uptick in the number of homes that changed hands in June.
CREA is now expecting a total of 463,336 residential properties to be sold throughout the year, representing a 1.4 per cent decline from 2025 — marking a reversal from its April forecast of a one per cent gain.
The national average home price is forecast to rise 1.1 per cent on an annual basis to $686,710 this year, which is around $2,000 lower than predicted in the spring.
In June, the national average sale price rose 0.5 per cent compared with a year earlier to $696,078.
CREA’s own home price index, which aims to represent the sale of typical homes, held steady from May to June, with the association noting it was the first time the measure didn't decline on a month-over-month basis since January 2025. The index dropped 3.6 per cent on a year-over-year basis.
The association says national home sales edged up 0.9 per cent in June compared with the same month last year, while activity also ticked 0.5 per cent higher from May.
— With additional reporting from The Canadian Press
