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Get ready for more turbulence ahead as election looms, pollster tells Ottawa business crowd

April 22, 2025

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Pollster David Coletto says businesses must brace for more uncertainty as the federal election looms and the trade war with the United States continues, telling a crowd at City Hall Tuesday that consumer behaviour could “change pretty rapidly” amid ongoing economic and political upheaval. At a morning breakfast event with Mayor Mark Sutcliffe, Coletto, the CEO of Ottawa-based polling and market research firm Abacus Data, said he is seeing more and more consumers and businesses “put a pause” on decisions about the future. “We’re not going to make big decisions about our future until we have a better sense of (today’s political uncertainty). Now, that may shift away when we realize that this uncertainty is here to stay and we have to find a way to navigate (through) it and not just delay, but I do think that consumers are clearly indicating a real reluctance to spend a bunch of money,” Coletto told Sutcliffe in front of an audience of hundreds of local business leaders. Conversely, Coletto said he is seeing an increase in support for Canadian businesses as U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments about making Canada the “51st state” have resulted in a heightened sense of patriotism across the country. “For good or bad, Donald Trump has activated something in us where, literally overnight, the moment he started talking about us becoming the 51st state, Canadian optimism jumped. It’s still not high. Only 30 per cent of Canadians think the country’s headed in the right direction, but four months ago, it was 12 per cent,” Coletto said. Businesses should focus on what makes them stand out, he added, quoting a moth-and-light bulb analogy made in Setting the Table, a book by American restaurateur Danny Meyer. “He says you should put your team (and suppliers) first and then your customers will come and be well-served … He says the moths are attracted to the light because of how bright it is, but they stay because of how warm it is. If you think about your own team, those two elements are fundamental. You’ve got to have something that people want … but if they show up and you’re not warm, they’re not going to stay,” Coletto said. He said that as the cost of living was rising heading into the federal election campaign, voters were thinking with a “scarcity mindset,” making the Conservative party more attractive for some. Now, Coletto added, Abacus is seeing a shift in voter attitudes in recent weeks as Liberal leader Mark Carney is becoming the favourite to win the election. “We’re in a place today where (the Liberals are) the favourites in this election, and what happened is Justin Trudeau resigned. Donald Trump did what Donald Trump has done and Mark Carney emerged to really offer Canadians (a sense of security),” he said. Coletto said the current federal election will fundamentally change Canada’s trajectory, pointing out that the state of Canadian politics a year ago is much different than it is today. “Last year, we were talking about the fact that the Conservatives could win an overwhelming majority, the Bloc (Québecois) would form the official opposition and we could be seeing a referendum in Quebec in 2026. The pandemic had the same effect. (It) completely changed so much of our behaviour and thinking,” he said. As the political climate, domestically as well as globally, continues to shift, Coletto urged business leaders in the crowd not to get complacent. “Don’t assume you know what your customers are thinking one day to the next, because it could change pretty rapidly,” he said.

‘A vibrant downtown is important’

Sutcliffe also asked Coletto about his thoughts on downtown revitalization and hybrid work, as Abacus Data is headquartered in downtown Ottawa. Coletto said he is an advocate for revitalizing the downtown core, but he knows that people are searching for flexibility. “It’s just simply that people want flexibility … If I needed to, I could make that choice that if there’s a snowstorm, nobody’s going to judge me for not trekking into the office when there’s 30 centimetres of snow outside,” he said. “It allowed people to both live their life and work.” He said that as a business owner, he encourages his team to come to the office, and everyone has a part to play in doing the same. “Regardless of where you live in the city, even if you live in the farthest reaches, in the rural parts of this community, you still think that a vibrant downtown is important. We all have to figure out and do our own part in encouraging it.” Despite challenges that lie ahead, Coletto concluded with an optimistic outlook for the future of Canada and its capital. “I think being Canadian (means) we are the luckiest. Being born in Ottawa and growing up here, I feel lucky about that. We have everything the world wants, so there is no reason for us, relative to everybody else, to feel dread or worry.”