While business confidence has been battered by U.S. tariff threats, Ontario Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Daniel Tisch said he’s never seen more energy and unity from business and government leaders alike.
On Wednesday, Tisch sat down with Ottawa Mayor Mark Sutcliffe at City Hall as part of the Mayor’s Breakfast series, hosted by OBJ and the Ottawa Board of Trade.
Like many conversations in the last few weeks, the discussion was dominated by the topic of Canada-U.S. relations.
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Sutcliffe made several references in his opening remarks to the tariffs that could be placed on Canadian goods entering the U.S. He quipped that he hoped all the guests in attendance had enjoyed the complementary mini-BeaverTails they received as they came in, since “there’s no tariffs on BeaverTails.”
On a more serious note, he added that work is underway at the local level to help the city prepare for the possible impacts of tariffs on the economy.
“A couple of weeks ago, I established the new mayor’s economic council, bringing together the leaders of our major economic development and business organizations,” he said. “We’ve already met a couple times and we’re tackling those issues together. We also passed a motion at city council to review our procurement practices to ensure that we’re buying local and buying Canadian and we’re encouraging residents and businesses to do the same.”
It’s a topic that’s also top of mind at the provincial level.
Tisch, whose organization represents 150 local chambers and boards of trade across Ontario, said recent surveys of business owners showed confidence took a sharp drop in a matter of weeks at the threat of tariffs.
“We had some pretty good news when we did the survey in December … business confidence went up to 26 per cent, versus 48 per cent who were not confident. A year ago, only 13 per cent were confident. Business confidence doubled,” said Tisch. “But because we usually release the survey in February, I said to my team, we have to do it again.”
When the chamber redid its survey – just as U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau were exchanging phone calls on the issue – Tisch said business confidence had dropped right back down to 15 per cent.
“Sixty-seven per cent of businesses said this is going to hurt their business,” he said.
There was more bad news, as businesses explained how they would adapt if tariffs went forward, he explained.
“The three biggest answers they gave as to how they were going to adapt were: raise prices, diversify suppliers, and lay off staff,” said Tisch. “Two of those things are not good news.”
From what he’s heard, he said he believes businesses and government officials are more determined than ever to find solutions.
“I’ve never seen more energy in the business community,” he said. “I’ve never seen more unity among ordinary people. I’ve never seen more responsiveness from the government and a real determination that we all share right now to turn talk into action. Despite all the challenges, those things make me optimistic.”
Questions from the chamber to government have been met with faster responses than ever before, he said. As an example, he highlighted the recent creation of the Ontario business and trade leadership coalition, which brings together chambers across the province and industry leaders in manufacturing, forestry, mining, energy and other sectors.
“I called the premier the Sunday after he called the election and let him know we were doing this. And I said, at some point, we’d love you to meet with this group as soon as possible. The meeting happened the next day, within 24 hours. When the premiers came to their agreement to reduce internal trade barriers a few weeks back, I texted Anita Anand, the internal trade minister, and she responded within 15 minutes. We had a call an hour later,” he said.
“This responsiveness is really exciting and I think there’s a chance to make progress.”
Tisch also accompanied the Canadian premiers when they made a trip to Washington, D.C. earlier this month to meet with members of the U.S. administration and present a united front on trade relations.
It’s an experience that he said revealed a lot about the American perspective on a potential trade war. Not all Americans he met were in favour of imposing tariffs on Canadian imports, he said. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, he added, has been a consistent and strong voice against tariffs.
But others are more hesitant to speak up. “So few business leaders and, frankly, so few chambers are being brave enough to stick up their heads. You understand it, right? They fear retribution, they fear loss of access. So their advocacy is very, very quiet,” he said.
Tisch said he met very few Americans who supported tariffs. “It was interesting because we could not find one single business leader, we could not find one single politician – and we met with Republicans and others – who thought the tariffs on Canada were a good idea,” he said. “The most common sentiment was, the president just wants to strike a deal, so let’s just get to the table.”
He said there were also plenty of jokes about Canada becoming the 51st state. But that narrative, he believes, is a distraction.
“He’s actually arguing with a straight face that a trade deficit is a subsidy, rather than the reality, which is that America simply produces (more) than it consumes,” he said. “It’s like me going to the BeaverTail truck, eating 20 BeaverTails and then calling a press conference and saying, ‘We’ve been subsidizing the BeaverTail industry for too long!’”
Tisch said the situation has already done plenty of harm.
“Am I more optimistic that we’ll get to a deal after that trip? Yes. I don’t know when and I don’t know how much crazy stuff we’re going to have to deal with between now and then. But the damage has already been done,” he said. “This is what we see in surveys. Investments delayed, investments deferred. Who is going to invest in the U.S. or Canada right now without knowing what their cost of input is going to be? It’s just not good for anybody.”
