Could Ottawa be heading for a condo glut like Toronto’s? Real estate board raises red flag

December 12, 2025

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The Ottawa Real Estate Board is suggesting that market watchers keep an eye on a potential build-up of condos in the local market, especially in light of what has happened in Toronto over the past few years. In its November update, OREB said in a news release that, “Toronto is working through one of the most significant build-ups of condo inventory in recent memory, which is putting clear pressure on prices. Ottawa is not in the same position, but the increase in apartment inventory is real.” OREB pointed to the fact that nearly 70 per cent of new home starts in the city this year are concentrated in rental and condo projects, “creating a substantial pipeline of multi-unit supply coming online in the coming years.” “While these starts influence the long-term rather than the immediate picture, they are still a key factor to watch,” said OREB in the release. “Toronto’s condo supply challenges emerged over several years as resale listings accumulated alongside an influx of new completions.” Overall, OREB said that residential sales in Ottawa in November were “shaped by early winter weather and a cautious economic environment.” There were 880 total sales in November, down from 1,177 the previous month and 18.2 per cent lower than November 2024. Year-to-date sales are 1.5 per cent ahead of this point in 2024. The average sale price was $680,496 in November, up a little more than two per cent compared with last year. The year-to-date average price is holding near $700,000, three per cent higher than a year ago. Gains are largely driven by single-family sales, which continue to climb, OREB said. At the same time, OREB pointed to an increase in inventory, which, while normal for November, this year is more pronounced, it said. Active listings reached 3,721 and months of inventory rose to 4.2, “which is a meaningful shift from last year’s tighter conditions,” OREB said. “This active listing indicator is trending higher than each of the past five years, indicating this is more than just the cyclical supply build-up associated with late fall/early winter,” according to OREB. The increase in home sale prices from 2024 was 2.2 per cent, which is down more than four per cent from October, which OREB described as “notable” and “larger than usual.” New residential listings in November were 1,458, down 39 per cent from October but 10 per cent higher than November of last year. “That additional choice is influencing pricing and buyer behaviour, especially across property types,” OREB said in the release. Apartments face the most supply pressure, with months of inventory for condos climbing above seven and sales down by more than one-third year-over-year. “Prices in this segment have held up better than townhomes on an annual basis, but the volume of available product signals a softer environment than the stable average sale price suggests,” read the release. The total value of homes sold in November was $599 million, a 16.5 per cent year-over-year decrease, while year-to-date sales were more than $9 billion, “a significant 4.6 per cent increase over 2024.” “Recent rate cuts offer some optimism for renewed buyer engagement through the typically quiet winter months, setting the stage for a steadier start to the new year and a more energized spring,” added OREB.