The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa will increase four per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter last year, according to a forecast from Royal LePage released today.
This lags the forecast national increase of six per cent, but is on par with other cities including Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Halifax and Winnipeg.
“There is growing optimism that the first quarter of 2025 will bring a robust resale market, with modest price increases in line with historical norms. We have experienced a mild winter in Ottawa so far, which along with favourable borrowing costs, has encouraged more buyers and sellers to the table,” said Jason Ralph, broker of record and president, Royal LePage Team Realty. “Turbulence within the federal government is unlikely to drastically disrupt the market in the immediate future.”
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Nationally, Royal LePage is forecasting that home prices will see the strongest quarterly gains in the first half of 2025 driven by spring market activity, followed by more moderate increases in the latter half of the year.
In the fourth quarter of 2024 in Ottawa, the aggregate price of a home increased 2.1 per cent year-over-year to $770,400. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 2.5 per cent to $888,100, while the median price of a condominium decreased 2.1 per cent to $392,700 during the same period.
“Thanks to a second 50-basis point cut to the central bank’s key lending rate, Ottawa recorded a stronger-than-usual fourth quarter in 2024. With borrowing costs still on a decline and new mortgage lending rules now in effect, both buyers and sellers are gradually re-entering the market as their confidence grows,” said Ralph in a news release.
“Faith in the market needs to go both ways; while rate cuts have been a big plus for buyers and their purchasing power, positive messaging by the Bank of Canada has also reassured sellers that the market and broader economy will maintain some stability,” he added.
“Much of the active inventory we gained during the summer months was snatched up in the fall, and has yet to be replenished. This could create a modest rise in prices come the spring as activity naturally ramps up.”
Ralph noted that Ottawa’s new construction segment has gained momentum in recent months, but construction financing remains a barrier to creating housing supply. Uncertain economic conditions and high start-up costs have prompted some builders to postpone launches and scale back prices, particularly with larger and higher-end housing projects, he said.
Nationally, according to Royal LePage, the aggregate price of a home in Canada increased 3.8 per cent year-over-year to $819,600 in the fourth quarter of 2024.
