Winter tourism businesses in Eastern Ontario are bracing for uncertainty as increasingly unpredictable weather patterns disrupt the cold, snowy conditions on which their seasonal operations rely.
Shifting climate patterns, along with shorter, milder and more erratic winters, are forcing many tourism operators to rethink their strategies.
Recent data from Environment and Climate Change Canada reveal a warming trend in Eastern Ontario, with the 2023-24 winter season seeing only 60 per cent of the typical annual snowfall and temperatures four degrees warmer than average.
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These changes pose challenges for operators like Tom Irwin, who runs his namesake motorsport tour company out of Calabogie.
Irwin’s snowmobile tours, once an important part of his business’s winter offerings for the better part of a decade, have been rebranded as “winter excursions” to manage expectations.
“I tell everybody that books snowmobile tours that if there isn’t sufficient snow to do it safely, our second choice will be a winter ATV tour,” Irwin explained. “It’s just what you kind of have to do to get by.”
The impact has been significant: Irwin hasn’t made a profit from snowmobile tours in two years, relying instead on his off-season ATV tours to cover expenses. Up to a quarter of his regular clients from Ottawa and Toronto have stopped coming, likely due to the unpredictable snow conditions.
“People who are born and raised in Canada are used to snowy conditions and instead of booking in advance, they’re waiting until the last minute,” said Irwin. “If there’s no snow, they don’t want to go out there.”
For international tourists, however, the focus remains on having a Canadian winter experience — snowmobile or not.
“They all want to do the snowmobiles and we’ll do whatever we have to do to get them out there because they’re only in Canada for a limited amount of time,” he said.
For Irwin, a self-identified “die-hard” snowmobiler, keeping the snowmobile tours is as much a matter of principle as business.
“As long as I can afford to do it, I’ll keep doing it.”
Unpredictable weather, unpredictable bookings
Joe Spence, owner of Blue Rock Charters in Kingston, faced a similar dilemma last winter when an early spring thaw cut his ice fishing season short. Shifting to boat tours in mid-February — weeks earlier than usual — proved challenging.
“Last winter was probably the most impactful we’ve had,” Spence recalled. “I had to work with my insurance company because they don’t normally let me run the boat super late or super early in the season.”
When the ice thinned earlier than expected, Spence cancelled several trips due to safety concerns. Ice fishing, which can accommodate groups of up to eight, shifted to boat fishing, which is far more limited.
“On the ice, I can do bigger groups at a lower cost because I just need to bring more gear,” he explained. “But in a boat, I need to get a buddy to team up with me and cover the extra costs.”
Additionally, clients often come specifically for ice fishing, especially for species like walleye in the Bay of Quinte, for which the season ends March 1. Convincing groups to pivot to boat fishing for a different catch at a later date has proven difficult.
“You have to try and convince a group of six to split up and fish for something they weren’t originally asking for,” Spence said.
Client behaviour is less predictable for Spence as well, who dealt with more cancellations than usual last winter, something he chalked up to safety concerns. Despite the ice being thick enough to safely fish, clients became reluctant as temperatures got warmer.
“I don’t normally take deposits … but I’ve been debating whether or not I should,” said Spence, reflecting on the number of cancellations he had to deal with last season. “I can’t keep losing business.”
As for this season, Spence doesn’t take much stock in weather predictions. Every year he monitors the temperatures of his fishing lakes to get an indication of when they might freeze over.
So far, he thinks it might be another late start to the ice fishing season.
“Right now, the water is around 10 to 12 degrees Celsius on most of the lakes; that includes the lakes north of Kingston, Lake Ontario, the Bay of Quinte,” Spence said. “That is really warm for this time of year.”
In it together
Nicole Whiting, executive director of the Ontario Highlands Tourism Organization, the regional tourism organization that covers from the bottom of Algonquin Park to Ottawa’s doorstep, sees a sector-wide adaptation happening, with businesses focusing on the shoulder seasons rather than relying solely on the region’s traditionally cold and snowy winters.
“We’re capitalizing on the longer fall shoulder season,” said Whiting. “We’re looking at how we can diversify, how we can better anticipate that unpredictability.”
Whiting is confident the region’s tourism industry is ready for whatever this season has to bring.
“What we are hearing isn’t doom and gloom,” said Whiting. “Maybe it’s our rural character, but we have a knack for getting creative and innovative when times are tough.”
“We have a really strong industry that supports one another and explores new ideas,” added Whiting. “That’s what positions us well to adapt to the changes.”
