Ottawa-Gatineau’s unemployment rate remained stable at 7.4 per cent in November, even as the number of unemployed people started to rise in August to levels unseen since 2021.
The local economy lost 5,700 jobs in November and the local labour force shrank by 6,000 as people in the National Capital Region stopped searching for work.
Nationally, the labour market surprised economists in November with a third straight month of job gains.
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Statistics Canada said Friday that the economy added 54,000 new positions last month, compared with economists’ expectations for a small loss.
The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 per cent in November, down from 6.9 per cent in October, marking a second consecutive monthly decline. StatCan said there were 26,000 fewer people in the labour market last month, pushing the jobless rate lower.
The economy added 181,000 jobs from September through November. Before then, labour market activity had been relatively cool since January, as employers grappled with U.S. tariff uncertainty.
Most of the employment growth came from part-time work, which StatCan said has outpaced gains in full-time employment over the past three months.
StatCan noted the rate of people working part-time on an involuntary basis was little changed from a year ago at 17.9 per cent and sat below the pre-pandemic average of 19.3 per cent for the month.
Youth aged 15 to 24 also drove employment gains last month after coping with a tough labour market to-date in 2025. StatCan said the demographic added 50,000 jobs in November, coming off a gain of 21,000 positions in October – the first months of job gains for youth since the start of the year.
The youth employment rate stood at 55.3 per cent in November, up 1.7 percentage points from the record low recorded in July.
BMO chief economist Doug Porter said in a note to clients Friday that the details in the November labour force survey were not as impressive as the headline, particularly with job growth concentrated in part-time work.
But he said the recent run of surprise job gains are a solid result by historical metrics.
“Put it this way, the last time we saw a six-tick drop in the unemployment rate in a two-month span (aside from the wildness around COVID) was during the last tech boom in 1999,” Porter said.
TD senior economist Andrew Hencic said in a note that the unemployment rate remains elevated despite the recent momentum in the labour market.
“While this is an improvement, there is still room for recovery,” he said.
The November job figures mark the final major data release before the Bank of Canada is set to make its final interest rate decision of the year on Wednesday.
The central bank signalled after cutting its policy rate by a quarter point to 2.25 per cent in October that it may be finished with further adjustments as long as incoming economic data doesn’t end up significantly weaker.
Porter said that three months of robust job gains, coupled with a surprise 2.6 per cent annualized jump in real GDP for the third quarter, should quash “any lingering prospect of a near-term Bank of Canada rate cut.”
Financial markets placed odds of a rate hold on Dec. 10 at nearly 93 per cent as of Friday morning, up from roughly 90 per cent heading into the jobs report, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.
Hencic said in his note that he expects the Bank of Canada will indeed pause at its final rate decision for this year.
“Our view is with the inflation rate expected to continue moderating, the bank will remain on the sidelines next week and continue to look for signs that a sustained recovery is in the works.”
