Ottawa’s residential real estate market is expected to be on the upswing in 2025, according to Royal LePage’s market survey forecast for the year ahead.
John Rogan, broker of record for Royal LePage Performance Realty, told OBJ Thursday that both activity and prices have been on the rise in Ottawa, with this winter set to be busier than normal.
“It’s always a bit of a challenge when we have the possibility of an election,” he said. “That being said, we’re forecasting a decent year. We probably won’t see much slowdown over Christmas.”
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The report found that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa is expected to increase four per cent year-over-year to $803,712. The median price of single-family detached homes is projected to increase five per cent to $935,340, while the median price for a condo is expected to increase three per cent to $407,365.
According to Rogan, recent interest rate cuts have brought more buyers back into the market.
“We believe Ottawa will see a moderate uptick in home prices as more purchasers enter the ring to take advantage of reduced lending rates next year,” he said. “We expect that many will be first-time buyers, who have been patiently waiting for mortgage rates to drop to more affordable levels. Steadily rising rents will also be a motivator for aspiring homeowners to get on the property ladder.”
After the extremes of the pandemic, Rogan said 2024 was a much softer market, but one that performed better than expected. The new year will likely be similar, he said.
“Ottawa is a perfect city for real estate, only because we don’t have the big highs and the big lows,” said Rogan. “A lot depends on how much our inventory climbs. We’re seeing a slight increase now, which will keep us in a mostly balanced market. If the inventory is small, then you’re into a seller’s market, with more people chasing less product.”
Still, the Canadian housing market could be hit with significant roadblocks, with a change in administration in the United States this January and an election looming at home.
“Here at home, a federal election will see new housing policies that may temporarily impact market activity in the second half of 2025,” Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage, said in the forecast report.
“South of the border, the incoming Trump administration’s trade policies and broader economic agenda have the potential to create ripple effects for Canada’s economy and housing market. While these impacts may take time to unfold, they could eventually affect consumer confidence and market dynamics on both sides of the border.”
Nationally, the report said, after several years of significant fluctuations driven by pandemic-era disruptions, dramatic swings in interest rates over a short period of time, and economic uncertainty, the Canadian residential real estate market is expected to see price appreciation fall in line with long-term trends in 2025, with home prices expected to rise in all major markets across the country.
