While housing starts were up nationally in October, there was a sharp drop in starts last month in Ottawa-Gatineau, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.
The national housing agency reported Monday that Ottawa-Gatineau’s annual pace of housing starts dropped 29 per cent in October compared to September, with the region’s monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate in October at 15,723, down from 22,088 the previous month.
The annual pace of multi-unit urban starts declined 29 per cent to 14,232, compared to 20,064 in September. Single-unit starts decreased 26 per cent from 2,024 in September to 1,491 in October.
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Ottawa’s pace of housing starts in October was similar to the same time last year. Builders started work on 1,365 new housing units in Ottawa-Gatineau last month, a one-per-cent increase from the 1,349 starts recorded in October 2023.
Multi-unit starts rose eight per cent from 1,098 to 1,186 last month year-over-year, while single-detached starts dropped 29 per cent to 179 compared to the 251 recorded in 2023.
For many major Canadian cities, actual year-to-date housing starts are on the decline, but Ottawa is leading the charge. Starts dropped 36 per cent in the region between January and October 2024, compared to the same time last year. By contrast, year-to-date starts are down 18 per cent in Vancouver and 21 per cent in Toronto. Montreal saw an increase of 12 per cent.
Annual pace of housing starts up nationally
Nationally, CMHC says the annual pace of housing starts in October rose eight per cent compared with September.
The agency said the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts was 240,761 units in October, up from 223,391 in September.
The increase came as the annual pace of urban housing starts rose six per cent to 223,111 units.
The annual pace of multi-unit urban starts such as apartments, condominiums and townhouses gained seven per cent at 175,705, while the rate of single-detached urban starts increased one per cent at 47,406 units.
The annual pace of rural starts was estimated at 17,650.
CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan said the Prairies, Quebec and Atlantic provinces have seen higher activity this year, while Ontario and B.C. recorded declines.
“Despite these results, we remain well below what is required to restore affordability in Canada’s urban centres,” Dugan said in a news release Monday.
TD economist Rishi Sondhi said October’s “healthy” level of starts “sets homebuilding off on the right foot in terms of its contribution to overall economic growth in the fourth quarter.”
But the outlook for housing starts remains “soft,” he said, even when considering October’s gains.
“This is largely due to the outsized weakness expected for Ontario, which will bring down the national figures,” Sondhi said in a note, adding starts in Ontario over the past 12 months have fallen to levels last seen in 2020.
“Pre-sales activity remains exceedingly weak in the GTA, pointing to more of the same through 2025. This is the key factor underpinning our forecast that starts will decline next year, even with homebuilding likely to hold up better in other parts of the country.”
With files from The Canadian Press
