Ottawa’s housing market has long been shaped by the stability of the federal public service. For decades, government employment has supported predictable housing demand, steady household formation and a level of insulation from the sharper volatility seen in other Canadian markets.
With federal workforce reductions now underway and expected to continue over the coming years, many in Ottawa are asking what this means for local real estate.
The answer remains measured.
Recent data from the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) shows the city’s average sale price remains modestly higher year-over-year, with ground-oriented homes continuing to outperform apartments. At the same time, projections from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) point to more moderate price growth heading into 2026, particularly in Ontario markets facing affordability constraints.
Even during periods of fiscal restraint, Ottawa-Gatineau remains the administrative centre of the country. While staffing levels may contract, the federal presence is structural and enduring. That foundational stability does not disappear overnight.
Employment shifts can, however, influence housing demand — particularly in specific segments.
Historically, entry-level condominiums and move-up properties have been most sensitive to public service hiring trends. New hires and contract employees often begin in apartment-style housing before progressing to townhomes or detached properties. A slowdown in hiring, or attrition without replacement, may temper demand in parts of the condo and starter-home market.
Neighbourhood-level performance data tracked on Sezlik.com suggests that Ottawa’s housing trends are increasingly localized. Areas supported by diversified employment bases — including technology, healthcare and education — have shown greater price stability in recent cycles compared to segments more closely tied to federal employment.
Ottawa’s broader economic foundation provides perspective. The city’s tech sector continues to mature, healthcare infrastructure is expanding, and post-secondary institutions contribute to steady population growth. CMHC forecasts also suggest housing starts may moderate in 2026 — a factor that could help balance supply and demand if buyer activity softens in certain categories.
For sellers, the key takeaway is positioning. Citywide averages often mask important neighbourhood-level differences. Well-prepared homes in established communities and strong school districts continue to attract competitive interest, particularly in the detached and townhouse segments.
For buyers, periods of uncertainty can create opportunity — especially where competition temporarily eases.
Ottawa’s housing market has historically demonstrated resilience through economic cycles. While public service reductions are a variable worth monitoring, they represent only one component of a broader and increasingly diversified economic landscape.
The coming year is unlikely to be defined by dramatic swings. Rather, it may be characterized by continued divergence between property types and neighbourhoods.
Ottawa real estate is evolving — not retreating.
About the author
Charles Sezlik is an Ottawa luxury real estate professional and co-founder of Sezlik.com. With over three decades of market experience, he provides data-driven insights and strategic luxury residential advisory. He is consistently recognized as one of Canada’s top-performing real estate professionals.
